Time to reach back out on this Blog and talk to home owners and reassure them of their investment in real estate. As you may have noticed in the news the interest rates are up and the market is shifting towards a buyer market for the 1st time in years. Here in the Denver Metro market the inventory of homes has grown by 400% since this time last year! More homes to buy means that buyers have a lot more time to make decisions and are not being rushed into making snap decisions. Buyers have been required to pay over asking prices for so long and those days are behind us for the time being. This does mean that prices will drop a bit but it won’t be anything like the Great Recession of 2008-2009. There are MANY reasons why it will be different and I’d love to talk with you about some of these.
First, and I don’t want to get into the weeds about the 2008 crash, suffice it to say, bad loans were handed out like candy with crazy adjustable rates and because of that people found themselves upside down with higher monthly payments than they were expecting. In other words, bad lending practice… See * below for a little explanation into this world. This type of banking led to people walking away from their homes. After all, they had very little to lose when you put 0% down and in the cases of 125% LTV mortgages, even less to lose! The foreclosure market went nuts and snowballed throughout nearly every neighborhood in America. This caused the landslide that followed for roughly 4 years. Caused mostly by this bad lending practice that allowed for little or no equity to begin with.
Since then, lending practices have changed markedly. No more funny-money loans and equity was a must. Gone were the days of the 0% loans and wild adjustable rates. Now lenders are lending to legitimate borrowers that have substantial money to put down. Borrowers are less apt to walk away from a home they put 20%+ cash into. They have more skin in the game and with the low interest rates they received at closing, they are more likely and able to make the payments and not foreclose. This should keep the foreclosure market from snowballing again.
The next reason why this market will not burst like 2008 is that the inventory of homes is still incredibly low. Even with the 400% increase year over year, we are still 75% below where a “normal” market needs to be. Homeowners were buying these homes with interest rates in the 2’s and 3’s, they want to keep that rate for as long as they can and since they have enough equity in the home, even if we see a slide in pricing, the equity will cushion that fall. This means most homeowners will NOT be upside down. With skin in the game and an interest rate that is super manageable, seller will be able to weather any storm that is approaching. This will keep the inventories down and a balance in the market so that we shouldn’t see the pricing landslide like we did in 2008.
Here’s another reminder of what drives markets. News media likes to exaggerate. News used to be just that; news. Now it seems to be more about commentary. News channels must fill 24 hours with stuff and most of that has become commentary, which is not news, it’s opinion. News media outlets like to pick and choose with stories follow the side they are on. Making some things look either better or worse than they really are so that they can sell their product and fill the air. It doesn’t matter and never will matter to me which side is doing what, that is because I like to read from both playbooks and make my own decision. I vet out what is being said and look for other viewpoints from that I formulate which path I want to follow. So, especially when it comes to the market, be wary of any “News” you might hear. Most likely it is a lot of commentary based on a little bit of news. My advice is to vet it out and find a few sources that back up the claims before taking drastic moves of any kind.
I heard recently that problems can become opportunities if you know where to look. Someone asked my wife and myself, if we could go back and do 2008 over again if we knew what we know now. Our answers were a resounding yes. The years following the worst real estate and banking disaster of our lifetimes were that of amazing heights! The market didn’t only recover, it flourished! Tenacity to live through the pain is how many people came out as winners on the other side. So my next point is to not panic. It may feel like a disaster is headed our way, but if you have the tenacity to weather the storm and you will come out of it better than before. Markets recover from crashes, they just do. Look back in history and tell me of a crash that didn’t recover. We’ve got this.
Hopefully, this has been helpful and remember, we are all in this together, so we can’t lose.
go to my website for more information regarding the Denver market. www.jeffhansencolorado.com
*When buyers entered the market back in 2005-2008, they were doing so with what many would call funny money. Lenders were offering loans that required little or NO money down. Not only that, but some loans included money for re-hab of the home you were buying thus creating a loan that was OVER the value of the current home. In some cases unto 25% more. Buyers of these homes were upside down from the day they bought them. There was a great deal of loans that were arrgesive adjustable rate loans starting out at very low interest rates and increasing over time, also in a very aggressive way. For example. lenders would offer loans with no money down and 0% interest for the first year. In some cases the rate would then increase by 1.5 to 2% each month after. Also, the loans are being handed out in risky ways. For example, there were loan products that were called “Stated” or “No Doc” loans. This is when the borrower literally “states” how much they make, They did not have to prove that they really made that amount with documentation or even a call to the employer! The borrower stated how much they made and the lender went with it… There are many more examples of the risky lending practices, but these were the big catalysts of the market crash.
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